Kim Yánez
Trump is Threatening Venezuela
US support of a regime change to protect itself
In February 28th of 2019, members of the UN Security Council were having a heated debate for the second time since February. Historical enemies and their allies didn't seem to agree on what to do about Venezuela's turmoil. US request to address Nicolás Maduro's policies and their humanitarian consequences in the region was backed up by the UK and France, but it received only bitterness from Russia and China.
The delegations had to discuss Venezuela's situation and choose between two competitive drafts: one from the US and the other from Russia. The sovereignty dilemma, violation of human rights and political legitimacy were the main points of scrutiny. Despite the urgency for a resolution they failed to reach one, again.

Still, the Trump administration hasn't stopped their efforts to construct a coalition against Maduro. Venezuela is facing a humanitarian crisis, due to the regime's totalitarian policies and systematic corruption; yet there's more to it than bad governance what keeps worrying the United States. A year prior, their assistant secretary for terrorist financing, Marshall Billingslea, said "Venezuela poses a clear threat to regional stability and security", reported Reuters. Such declarations started discussions to designate it a state sponsor of terrorism. The Washington Post contact an official, who in behave of the State Department official, Elizabeth Williams, said the decision is expected to be made soon.

A month later no agreement was reached at the Council, the US National Security Advisor John Bolton, stated in a press release that Maduro's regime endangers regional stability and condemned the entrance of Russian's military forces in Venezuela for being a "direct threat to international peace and security". The ambassador finished his statement remarking they will "continue to defend and protect the interests of the United States and those of our partners in the Western Hemisphere".

Since then, it became or -it has always been- a matter of security.

The Trump administration discourse towards Venezuela constructs the idea that Maduro is threatening. In 20 years, unconstitutional policies of the Chavista regime contribute to that premise; although finding a solution to tackle these accusations has been diplomatically insufficient, until now. By calling last presidential elections in May 2018 fraudulent in which Maduro was the claimed winner, the legitimacy crisis could be heading towards a power transition process owing to the US recognition of the president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó as interim President, supported by other 53 nations too. According to article 233° of the Constitution, is the head of Congress the one with the responsibility to control the Executive power in the absence of an elected leader, and to call for new polls. Hence, it seems like supporting a regime change is the only way the American government considers it will put an end to the threat.

The US is not alone in this position, the Organization of American States also declared in a resolution that the polls lacked legitimacy and did not follow international standards for them to be free and fair. Hence, they have promoted stronger pressure on Maduro to leave power. In the worst-case scenario, President Donald Trump has a military intervention in the agenda, if it were necessary. "Certainly, it's an option", he said as Reuters reported.

Realist foreign policies are evident and also show the Trump administration commitment to creating the appropriate conditions for a regime change. In February, when US troops arrived in Colombia, Trump sent an ultimatum to the Venezuelan military. He encouraged soldiers to abandon Maduro; otherwise they will "lose everything", Vox published. Such rhetoric on security matters benefits the right-wing American presidential campaign against left-wing politics: "The days of socialism and communism are numbered, not only in Venezuela but in Nicaragua and in Cuba as well", he claimed according to Bloomberg.

Maduro's policies linked to socialism or not, are illegal. He has been implicated in human right violations, having links with transnational criminal organizations and allowing foreign military influence in Venezuelan territory without permission from the National Assembly. Today his legitimacy is questioned and the world is watching the humanitarian situation turned into a refugee crisis. The Trump administration has reasons to believe the region is in danger and it needs to find a way for a regime change.
Not-so-friendly influences
In the morning, they were visible. The world saw two Russian planes arrived in Venezuela on March 23th when the country was submerged in the darkness of an electricity blackout that lasted a week. They were an An-124 and an Il-62. Around 100 Russian soldiers were welcomed by Maduro, alongside 35 tonnes of cargoes of military equipment. The Guardian reported the flights first stopped in Syria and then went to the Caribbean.

Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova said TASS this arrival is part of the military-technical cooperation ratified bilaterally in May 2001 when Hugo Chávez was in power. Jiri Valenta, a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, explained in an article for Gatestone Institute, two Russian Air Force Tu-160 strategic bombers near North America coastlines in January and same planes landed in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, 15 days before the incident. Historically, such influences are a self-proclaimed duty Americans took seriously and it's still part of their foreign policy principles. John Bolton said on March 4th: "In this administration, we're not afraid to use the phrase 'Monroe Doctrine'. This is a country (Venezuela) in our hemisphere; it's been the objective of presidents going back to Ronald Reagan to have a completely democratic hemisphere", reported Washington Examiner.

Vladimir Rouvinski, Director of the Laboratory of Politics and International Relations at Icesi University, Colombia, wrote a paper for the Kennan Institute about Venezuela and Russia's relations. He stated President Vladimir Putin's geopolitical ambitions are fulfilled by Maduro. Despite making businesses with the Caribbean country ended up in corruption, Kremlin's priority is worth losing money. "Were Venezuela ever to fall from the Russian orbit, it would be very painful for the Kremlin. Moscow is trying hard to prevent this from happening," he assured. Maduro also needs Russia to stay in power now that his legitimacy is questioned. If the US government keeps taking actions against them and supporting a regime change helped by allies like Colombia and Brazil, these friends will be trapped "in a crossroad", he concluded.

Latin American states in coalition with Trump administration are worried about how much Russia has to do with stopping the power transition process now happening in Venezuela and if the impediment is the risk of a military conflict. They are supported by the OAS: the majority of members in the body don't recognize Maduro as the legitimate president. In a press release from 2018, OAS General Secretary stated the presence of Russian military air force in the country could possibly have a nuclear capacity, which is a violation of the Treaty of Tlatelolco (Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean).

Maduro's regime policies not only are a threat to the eyes of the international community, but unconstitutional. The press release also addresses such relations violate section 11th of article 187° in the Venezuelan Constitution, which declares is only the responsibility of the National Assembly to ask for foreign military assistance in the territory. The congress is an opposition-led institution who would rule against Maduro, so their interaction is null, but inactivity has political consequences. In spite of sanctions to both countries, Russia and Venezuela keep challenging the region's inquietude by signing new bilateral cooperation and investment agreements on April.

The not-so-friendly influence of Russia is not the only non-Western country threatening US national security from Venezuela. Iran, who broke relations with Trump, has reinforced bilateral cooperation with Maduro. He is working directly with Minister of Defense of the Iranian Armed Forces, Amir Hatami. An Iranian delegation went to Venezuela to concrete a flight route with Iranian airline Mahan Air, accused of transporting military equipment to Middle East war zones and for supporting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

Mahan Air was designated an organization sponsor of terrorism. David Cohen, Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence said in a press release back in 2001, "following the revelation about the IRGC-QF's use of the international financial system to fund its murder-for-hire plot, today's action highlights further the undeniable risks of doing business with Iran"

Bolton's declarations regarding the Monroe Doctrine also pointed out Iran's influence. The two forces of these countries combined suite the doctrine principle and its application in Latin America. The presence of non-Western powers to promote communism gave the US enough reasons to act against them by supporting regime changes. Conclusions in the paper of Mark Gilderhus, The Monroe Doctrine: Meanings and Implications, suggest the policy died with the Cold War, as he is right to say the doctrine made the US feel entitled to intervene. Going back to those times and as realist as it might sound today, the "all options are on the table" statements made systematically by Trump's spokesmen became more severe because of the increasing Russian and Iranian cooperation. For this administration, US national security is at risk and Latin American policies have always been their domestic matter.
Maduro's criminal links
Maduro's reputation was already damaged before the Russia-Iran cooperation, due to his links with transnational criminal organizations. Trump uses it to support a regime change for approved especially by developing states affected for being close neighbors. A report of the International Crisis Group compiles information about the presence of FARC dissidents and ELN, host by the regime to have illicit currency coming from the control of gold mines, and promote cross-border violence and low-intensity warfare.

It was concluded in the military review of Leopoldo Colmenares addressing the active participation of high-level officials from the government, the militarization of the most important state institutions and personal enrichment made it possible in the last 20 years of Chavism. The State Department report declared Venezuela is not cooperating fully with US counterterrorism efforts and creating permissive environments for these groups. In that matter, Maduro was also accused to have state terrorism policies.

More recently, another criminal group was linked with Maduro. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo affirms the presence of Hezbollah active cells in Venezuela for which he blames Iran's influence: "Iranians are impacting the lives of Venezuelans and South America. We have an obligation to lower that risk", reported Todo Noticias. Colin Clark a Senior Fellow at Soufan Center, explained in an article in Foreign Policy, a regime change in favor of Guaidó is an ideal scenario to dismantle Hezbollah's big infrastructure for drug trafficking, money laundering, and contraband, but he fears it's a challenge doomed to fail.
The unwelcomed Venezuelan exodus
Every day, around five thousand Venezuelans leave the country by foot. Every day is someone else's turn. Faces of exhaustion and fear reflect hope, but also frustration. This refugee crisis in the American continent is unprecedented; so much so it will reach Syrian proportions without being in war.

For DevTech Team it happened thanks to economic announcements causing hyperinflation. But, an independent study of the OAS reported the violation of human rights is systematic. Maduro denied the humanitarian crisis and blocked international aid. He uses food supply for mass control, politically persecutes those that think differently, stops paying salaries and then fires public workers who denounce corruption and threats to their freedom of speech. In a different investigation, the organization predicts "by the year 2020 between 7.5 and 8.2 million Venezuelans could be part of the forced migration".

From the US perspective, President Donald Trump uses the threat declaration as a reflection of his domestic affairs. He argues immigrants not only "steal jobs", but bring crime to the US. It was demonstrated in his immigration reform, the Muslim ban, the way he framed the Caravan and his never-ending battle against Congress to build the wall in Mexico border. His administration considers the refugee crisis makes the region unstable, but goes in concordance with his security act of "stigmatizing immigrants", a "necessary component of Trump's populist securitization", analyzed doctor in Political Science, Michael Magcamit in his paper about populism, securitization, and realist foreign policies in the US.

When contacted to talk about this, Magcamit said: "From a realist perspective, it's all about strategic power calculations, both hard and soft power". As it is a complex issue he argues "if the calculations of his advisers suggest that doing nothing will be costly for US border security and economic security, then it's probably necessary to take some pre-emptive measure to contain the expected negative impacts on the crisis as early as now".

Hence, US domestic policies transcend to foreign affairs and claim a regime change to stop immigration. Venezuelans are the biggest asylum-seekers group since the humanitarian crisis started in 2014, but immigration judges denied nearly 50% applications, hundreds are deported, thousands of tourist visas revoked and the refugee status isn't being respected, as it was published in the American Prospect. It's definitely not about democracy restoration or the people. Yes, the promotion of crime and focusing his foreign policy agenda in military assistance when citizens are starving isn't doing the Venezuelans any favor either and only frames Maduro's regime as illegal and cruel; yet the American way also lacks human sensitivity.
Kimberly Yanez
Venezuela
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