Suddenly, switching from Russian to Ukrainian he continues, "Today every Ukrainian has three options. The first one is to follow the crowd and live as usual. It is normal. It is your choice. The second one is to pack your bags and go abroad to earn money and send it to your family back home. It is also normal. The third option is to try to change something in Ukraine. I have chosen the third option. Now in a few minutes before the New Year, I will promise you something and fulfil it right away: I promise you to run for the presidency, and I do! Let's do it together!"

After the result of the first round of presidential elections were announced on Monday, April 1st, Ukrainians and the rest of Europe are holding their breath in anticipation of what is going to happen next: Will the country weakened by the armed conflict and economic instability be given to the hands of an inexperienced commander-in-chief in the run-off? Will the chocolate oligarch, incumbent Petro Poroshenko be reelected for the 2nd term despite the corruption allegations? This time the majority have chosen the comedian.

Trying to analyse why Ukrainians have decided to vote for an experiment, some experts and journalists suggest that Ukrainians are merely disappointed in the entire political elite and voting for a "new face" to protest.

Others blame emotions: journalists think the series "Servant of the people" broadcasted a couple of days before the elections touched Ukrainians. In the show, the comedian is becoming a president and turns Ukraine into a prosperous and peaceful country. The journalists say the character featured in the series reminded the voters of the candidate they are craving. It is hardly a coincidence that the same comedian playing a president in the series has got the majority of votes in real life.

The experts are concerned that Ukrainians see Volodymyr Zelensky through the lens of his character in the movie and that the outcome of his victory, in reality, will be disastrous.

The economic perspective applied to explain the voting behaviour of Ukrainians reveals deeper problems in Ukrainian society that lay beyond the disappointment with political elite and emotions.

The theory of economic voting suggests that the support of the incumbent politicians by the voters during the elections directly relates to the economic fluctuations. The incumbent political elites tend to receive strong support from the voters during the economic prosperity and can be punished by the voters in the times of economic decline.

The steady growth of the Ukrainian economy that began in the 2000s improved the social situation in the country. Ukrainian economic model primarily oriented towards export of raw materials to foreign markets was successful due to the low cost of energy and labour, however, not for long.

The national report "Sustainable Development Goals: Ukraine" published by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade in 2017 states that the economic competitiveness of Ukraine is "an illusion" that is causing further delays of necessary structural reforms.

When in 2009 the first wave of the global financial crisis hit the foreign markets, the economy of Ukraine suffered considerable decline. The GDP per capita of Ukraine dropped down by more than 14%, according to the World Bank.

Even though, the Ukrainian economy recovered by 2010, the next downturn hasn't been long in coming.

In 2015, GDP dropped by 9%, shortly after the armed conflict broke out in the eastern regions seized by the Russian-backed armed groups, who did not accept the new pro-European government that came to power in Kyiv as a result of popular revolution a year earlier.

"Of course, the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass have constrained the Ukrainian economy a lot," says Tymofii Brik, Associate Professor at Kyiv School of Economics.

"Ukraine lost a lot of industrial cities, faced new labour migration and IDP movements. The war is not over," reminds the expert. "Thus, the impact of it has never disappeared. For example, Ukrainians pay war taxes, and the territories are still lost. The situation improved in some parts of the economy and did not improve in others."

However, the economy is still fragile; the expert argues that new government managed to spearhead the integration of Ukraine with the EU and introduced some successful reforms benefiting the economy in the spheres like public procurement, education, health, and banking.

It seems that Ukrainian voters do not see the situation the same way the economists do. The overall impression of public well-being and the state of the Ukrainian economy, in general, seems to be negative among the population as a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in May 2018 has shown.

Ukraine gained its independence 28 years ago; however, the country is still undergoing a democratic transition. The level of trust towards the government remains low and electoral volatility is high. The ratings of the newly elected presidents start dropping down within the 1st year in office reports BBC. One of the major factors of falling ratings is corruption.

The current president Petro Poroshenko is not an exception. Weeks before the 1st round of elections, Poroshenko lost the 2nd place in the opinion polls, after the investigative journalists published the scandalous report revealing the shady dealing of Poroshenko's business associate Oleh Hladkovskiy. The deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council was allegedly smuggling spare parts for military equipment from Russia at inflated prices, reports the Atlantic Council. The corruption allegations seriously damaged the candidate's reputation as he makes a big emphasis on the army in his campaign.

Electoral immaturity is another major factor that influences electoral behaviour. In the newer democratic contexts, the voters base their assessment of government performance on subjective reasoning and retrospective thinking rather than facts due to the lack of the knowledge of the legislation and low trust in democratic institutions.

A recent survey (KIIS) has shown that the majority of the voters don't know what are the president's responsibilities. The respondents mistakenly include regulating prices for energy tariffs (35%) and wages and pensions (32%) into presidential responsibilities, while forgetting about the important ones like leading the National Security Council and the Defence Ministry (17%).

"Our current president has been in politics for 20 years, and he didn't manage to become wiser and kept looting our country," complains 37-year-old Natalia, a single mother of two from a small industrial town Kamianske in Dnipro region. "There is no trust anymore. That's enough."

She remembers her family's financial situation was much better in 2011, "...My husband's salary was from 4,000 to 6,000 hryvnia. We lived amazing. We could pay for utilities, bank loans, buy expensive clothes from famous brands." reminiscing Natalia. "Now, the salary is the same, but the prices are not. We can't afford anything with these "charity." It is unreal, impossible."

Natalia is not the only one complaining, a sharp increase in utility prices that launched in 2014, caused a wave of outrage among the citizens. The government officials say that higher tariffs are necessary to decrease budget subsidies for state-run energy companies to comply with the IMF demands and boost economic growth; however, for citizens with minimum wages, for whom the cost of warm winter may become unaffordable, these are just the empty promises.

"They promised not to raise utility prices," says Natalia. "It is impossible to survive for ordinary people. I can't imagine how old people are surviving. My Mom is 66 years old, and she has to keep working in her age because the pension is too small."

Natalia gave her vote to Zelensky at the first round of elections and hopes he will win the run-off. She believes the comedian will bring positive changes to the country because he is young and managed to build quite a successful career on TV. It is hard work to reach such a level of popularity. Especially, when you are from ordinary people," says Natalia.

Maria Repko, executive director of The Centre for Economic Strategy, agrees that the pace of the reforms is slow, but she does not believe that voters can rationally estimate the state of the economy.

"I do not believe voters wanted particular reforms - they are just not aware of it mostly," says the expert,

"Just general 'good' or 'bad' economic situation, is based not on real-life data but rather on impression, created by many sources: personal experience, media, and others."

In the run-off elections that will take place already this week, the current president Petro Poroshenko and his more than 20 years of experience will compete with 3.7 million Instagram followers of his competitor, non-incumbent candidate, comedian and famous TV star - Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We don't have tents," says 23-year-old Elena Medved referring to the outdated campaign methods. Elena works in the IT department of the campaign team of Volodymyr Zelensky. "At first Volodymyr was even against sideroad posters, against all these things. We wanted to conduct the whole campaign online so that people could see us online: in Telegram, Twitter, Viber. We have taken over all social networks."

Elena confesses that she has never been interested in elections before. She never voted, however, was eligible. She was just not interested.

"Honestly, this year was the first time I went to vote. Because I believe that everything will be good," explains Elena. "I think Volodymyr Zelensky gave some hope, even goals for change and young people believed him."

Experts agree that Zelensky's unconventional campaign has indisputably played a significant role in attracting the young audience.

"He creates hype for them, hype elections," says Yevgen Mahda, a political expert, an executive director of the Institute of World Policy based in Kyiv. "Elections as a kind of protest, as a demonstration of misbehaviour."

Yevgen is sceptical about Zelensky's campaign promises and doesn't see him as a politician comparing his promises to "selling drugs" and states that the comedian should stop joking to become a politician.

While the whole nation is impatiently staring in their smartphones and TV screens waiting to find out the name of their new president, the candidates continue the online duelling. On April 4th, Volodymyr Zelensky posted a high-quality video on YouTube where he is challenging the current president to debate with him at the stadium on April 19th. The media and voters invited. Conditions set.

In response, Petro Poroshenko produced his video challenging the comedian to come and debate with him "like a real man" insisting on his date – April 15th. After the comedian didn't show up, the media called it "one-man debate". Poroshenko made a selfie with a stadium full of voters to keep up with the rival's growing popularity online.

Quite possibly, this year's presidential elections will become the most entertaining for the Ukrainian voters. The question though still hangs in the air: will the laughing last long?

In the intimacy of the polling booth on April 21st, every Ukrainian will think about their own life: how small is the salary, how bad are the roads, how long is the war, how much they are tired of waiting for improvements.

Now, not much time is left to think. Some voters have decided the fate for their country long ago; others are still in doubt. Looking back in the past clenching our teeth over the grievances or looking forward in our future hoping that our patience will be awarded, it is every voter's personal choice. However, the consequences we will all bear together.

"When I saw Zelensky on TV congratulating us with the New Year instead of our current president, honestly speaking, I was shocked but happy," laughs Natalia. "Back then I understood that changes were coming…"


Cover Photo from Volodymyr Zelensky's Facebook Page